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Anaheim Ducks’ Trade Signals Future Focus

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Analyzing how the Anaheim Ducks trade signals future focus, shaping their rebuilding strategy, roster development, and long-term NHL outlook.

The Anaheim Ducks have traded veteran defenceman Cam Fowler and a 2027 fourth-round pick to the St. Louis Blues in exchange for a 2027 second-round pick and defenceman Jérémie Biakabutuka, with Anaheim retaining 38.5% of Fowler’s $6.5 million AAV cap hit.

While a Fowler trade is not a surprise, his destination is. At least to some. 

Fowler’s Tenure with the Ducks

Nine games. Fowler was just nine games shy of reaching the 1,000-game milestone with Anaheim. It will be strange to see him in a St. Louis Blues uniform.

Selected 12th overall in the 2010 NHL Draft, Fowler has been a cornerstone of the Ducks’ defence for 15 seasons. He departs as the franchise’s all-time leader among defencemen in goals (96), assists (361), and points (457). Not bad after being dubbed “The Next Scott Niedermayer” (Fun fact: He lived with the Niedermayers as a 19-year-old when he immediately made the team in his first pro camp). However, this season his stat line was 0-4-4.

Contractual and Financial Considerations

In 2017, Fowler signed an eight-year, $52 million contract extension, carrying an average annual value (AAV) of $6.5 million.

By retaining 38.5% of his salary in the trade, Anaheim absorbs approximately $2.5 million per year, providing St. Louis with a more manageable cap hit. This leaves Anaheim with almost $27 million in cap space – plenty to work with and weaponize as the trade deadline approaches.

Analytics Don’t Like Fowler

It is not surprising the Ducks had to absorb some of Fowler’s salary. The analytics community does not shine Fowler in the brightest light.

According to Dom Luszczyszyn, Fowler’s performance is worth less than $1 million AAV. Dom’s model gives Fowler a -3 offensive rating and a -6 defensive rating. Offensive rating is a weighted combination of offensive metrics like goals, primary assists, secondary assists, individual expected goals, and more. Defence rating is a weighted combination of blocked shots, penalties taken, expected goals against impact at five-on-five, goals against impact at five-on-five, and more. In short, offensive and defensive ratings are both centred around an average skater at their position, therefore an average player would have a combined offensive and defensive rating right at zero. Fowler’s metrics indicate that both the Ducks and the Blues are getting a well below-average player on both ends of the ice and a bad deal given his current performance.

What these models don’t account for are a veteran voice and presence in the locker room, nor do they account for Fowler’s potential chemistry with new Blues Head Coach Jim Montgomery. Maybe a change of scenery will do Fowler some good.

Ducks Future Focus

This trade aligns with the Ducks’ rebuilding strategy, allowing increased ice time for emerging defensemen such as Jackson LaCombe, Pavel Mintyukov, Drew Hellion, and Olen Zellweger, and signals the Duck’s focus on the future. All four of those defenceman have shown flashes of promise this season, with Zellweger being the most promising. LaCombe is a close second, but Zellweger takes the edge given his role as Powerplay 1 quarterback.

Acquiring a 2027 second-round pick also enhances Anaheim’s draft capital, which is crucial for long-term roster development. Although, Ducks fans will hope this team is not still rebuilding in 2027. Additionally, integrating 22-year-old defencemen Jérémie Biakabutuka, despite his limited AHL experience, offers potential depth and a developmental project for the organization.

The defence pairings going forward could look something like this:

Olen Zellweger – Brian Dumoulin

Jackson LaCombe – Jacob Trouba

Pavel Mintyukov – Radko Gudas/ Drew Helleson

Conclusion

Trading Cam Fowler marks the end of an era for the Anaheim Ducks, as they part with a player who has been integral to the franchise’s identity, particularly for his role in the 2015 and 2017 playoff runs and starting “The Comeback on Katella”. While his departure leaves a void in leadership and experience, the move reflects a strategic commitment to rebuilding and youth development. The Ducks’ organization and fans have rightfully expressed profound gratitude for Fowler’s contributions, acknowledging his professionalism and lasting impact on the team and community.

Main Photo: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

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