Welcome back to NHL Predictions. Each day, Last Word on Hockey takes a look at the games that are scheduled then offers insight and analysis to help predict who will be victorious in head-to-head matchups. Today we are looking at the game between the Chicago Blackhawks and Tampa Bay Lightning. Be sure to check out more NHL Predictions as the 2024-25 season continues.
NHL Predictions
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
TV: CHSN; FDSNSUN; ESPN+
The Chicago Blackhawks (15-29-5) and Tampa Bay Lightning (26-19-3) meet again after facing off four days prior in Chicago. In that game, the Lightning came back from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Blackhawks 4-3 in overtime. Tampa Bay will be looking to get the same result tonight on home ice. Will the Blackhawks be able to throw a wrench into those plans?
Bedard Needs More Help
After winning the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery and securing the rights to select budding superstar Connor Bedard it appeared like the Chicago Blackhawks were on their way to better days ahead. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened. The Blackhawks went 23-53-6 in Bedard’s rookie year and are now 15-29-5 in 2024-25. This seems to be wearing on their young phenom. Bedard does have 104 points in 117 career games but, it seems like he could certainly benefit from more help around him.
One of the main problems for Chicago is they can’t keep the puck out of their own net. Starting netminder Petr Mrazek has seen a ton of rubber facing 851 shots so far this season. This has contributed to a below-average 3.26 GAA and .895 SV%. It is not all on him as the Blackhawks as a team are second last in the league in goals allowed at 170. The Blackhawks will need much better defensive structure and goaltending if they want to get out of the basement of the league.
The Lightning Are Looking For Consistency
So far in January Tampa Bay has struggled to find their best game. They started 2025 losing three straight before going 3-0-1 in their next four. In the Lightnings seven games since they are 3-4-0. They will need to start stacking some wins together if they want to stay in the top three of the Atlantic Division. The inconsistency is tough to pin down as the Lightning rank top ten in the NHL on both special teams as well as in GF/GP and GA/GP.
One thing Tampa Bay can always count on is scoring goals. They average 3.54 goals a game, and once again display a top-five power play. Their top line of Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, and Nikita Kucherov have a combined 75 goals and 173 points. The biggest problem for the Lightning has been a lack of depth scoring causing this line to be separated on occasion to try and create more balance in the lineup. This forward lineup will likely have Andrei Vasilevskiy behind them tonight after he didn’t face Chicago the first time.
Prediction
On paper, this game seems like a mismatch with the Blackhawks biggest weakness (defence) feeding into the Lightnings biggest strength (offence). However, in the last game between these two teams, Arvid Soderblom started and stopped 36 of 40 shots as Chicago was outshot 40-17 on their way to blowing a two-goal lead. The ‘Hawks will likely need a similar goalie performance tonight. Expect the goalie matchup to be opposite of what it was last game with Mrazek and Vasilevskiy likely starting. Kucherov has three points in the last meeting. Expect him to lead the charge again for Tampa Bay tonight.
Prediction: Lightning win 5-2
Prop Bets of The Night
This prediction leans in the favour of Tampa Bay. So, let’s make a three-legged Lightning same-game parlay for tonight’s game. Guentzel as an anytime goal scorer parlayed with the Lightning -1.5, and over 6.5 total goals has odds of +453.
Main Photo Credit: Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images
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The post NHL Predictions: January 28 Chicago Blackhawks vs. Tampa Bay Lightning appeared first on Last Word On Hockey.