Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the New York Islanders taking on the Colorado Avalanche. Don’t forget to check out all the action on NHL Predictions as our writers continue this series throughout the 2024-25 season.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders vs Colorado Avalanche
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
TV: ESPN+, HULU, MSGSN
This matchup features two out of conference opponents getting opposite results so far this season. The Islanders sit seventh in the Eastern Conferences Metropolitan Division. Through 48 games they have a record of 21-20-7 good for 49 points. The Avalanche are fourth in the Western Conferences Central Division. 51 games in their record is 29-20-2 good for 60 points. This is the second and final matchup between these teams. The Islanders took the first matchup 6-2 at Ball Arena in Colorado. Tonight’s contest will take place on Long Island inside the UBS Arena.
The Islanders Story
The Islanders come into this game on a four-game winning streak and winners of seven of their last nine. They have outscored their opponents 13-5 on that win streak. The offence has picked up lately scoring three or more goals in five straight games. They still are ranked 29th in the league with 2.67 goals per game. The recent offensive surge has been thanks to Bo Horvat and his move back up to the first line next to Mathew Barzal. Horvat is on a five-game point streak and in January he’s won over 70% of his faceoffs. Barzal just had his four game point streak snapped but he has been hot in the month of January. Brock Nelson has been giving solid production and balance to the top 6 as well. He has five goals and five assists over his last eight games.
The strong defensive has been a big reason for their latest win streak. They have held opponents to one goal or fewer in three of the last four. This stretch has them ranked 13th in goals against with 2.92 per game. The recent success of the penalty kill has been a key. For the season they still rank last at 68.3%. However since January first they are second in the league at 88.9%. It won’t be easy to maintain this play with all the recent injuries they have sustained. Noah Dobson and now Ryan Pulock are both on the IR. Backup goalie Marcus Hogberg joined them on the IR as well, Jakub Skarek has been recalled. Starter Ilya Sorokin will now have more pressure to start as many games as possible. He is 16-14-4 with a .904 save percentage and 2.75 goals against.
The Avalanche Story
The Avalanche snapped their three game losing streak in their last game. A 5-4 win over the New York Rangers. They are led by a high scoring offence which ranks eighth in the league with 3.27 goals per game. Led by superstar Nathan MacKinnon with 77 points in 51 games. The reigning Hart Trophy winner continues to pace the league in points this season. Following the trade of their second point leader Mikko Rantanen, MacKinnons new running mate is Martin Nečas. He has 57 points in 51 games. Norris Trophy candidate Cale Makar provides firepower from the blueline as well. He has 56 points in 51 games and leads all defenceman in goals.
Compared to their offence the defence of Colorado is the weaker of the two. They rank 21st in goals against at 3.12 per game. Despite that ranking they have allowed the sixth least amount of shots on goal at 1041. That is while allowing the eighth least amount of high danger shots with just 87. They sport a strong penalty kill, 14th in the league at 79.8%. They have also gotten strong play from their goalies. Starter Mackenzie Blackwood has benefited greatly from his trade from the San Jose Sharks to Colorado in December. He is 10-4-2 with a .922 save percentage and 2.17 goals against. Backup Scott Wedgewood has been solid too since his arrival from the Nashville Predators on November 30th. He is 5-3 with a .910 save percentage and 2.40 goals against. It is unclear which one will get the nod vs the Islanders but Blackwood is likely.
Prediction
This matchup on paper feels pretty even. The offence, special teams advantages go to Colorado. However defence, goaltending and home ice advantage goes to New York. However the Islanders have been hit hard by injuries lately. Overall the Avalanche are the better of the two but the Islanders come into the game playing better at this current moment on a four game winning streak. They are more desperate for the points and hold a win over Colorado this season. We feel like these factors will help them pull of the upset on the Island.
Prediction: Islanders win 4-3
Prop Bets
We wrap up NHL predictions with some prop bets. Popular sports betting websites have the Islanders as the underdogs. Take their money line at +130. The over/under is at 5.5. Given the strong Colorado offence and the Islanders hot scoring recently, the over is the play at -128. As far as any time goal scorers, for the Islanders take Brock Nelson at +200. He is on a two game goal streak and we think he will keep that up. For the Avalanche take Nathan MacKinnon at +105. The leagues point leader is a threat to score on any night.
Main photo by: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images
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The post NHL Predictions: January 28 New York Islanders vs Colorado Avalanche appeared first on Last Word On Hockey.